Capacity Planning and Cost Attribution

The ChatCLI AIOps platform includes three advanced subsystems that work together to optimize operations: Capacity Planner (resource exhaustion forecasting), Noise Reducer (intelligent alert suppression), and Cost Tracker (cost tracking and ROI calculation).

Capacity Planner

The Capacity Planner analyzes historical CPU and memory usage trends to predict when a cluster’s or namespace’s resources will be exhausted — enabling proactive action before incidents occur.

Linear Regression Algorithm

The Capacity Planner uses least-squares linear regression to project the resource exhaustion date.

Given a set of points (t_i, y_i) where:
  t_i = normalized timestamp (hours since first point)
  y_i = resource usage percentage (0-100)

Calculates:
  slope     = (n * sum(t*y) - sum(t) * sum(y)) / (n * sum(t^2) - sum(t)^2)
  intercept = (sum(y) - slope * sum(t)) / n

Exhaustion projection:
  If slope > 0:
    hours_until_full = (100 - current_usage) / slope
    exhaustion_date  = now + hours_until_full

The algorithm requires at least 3 data points to generate a reliable projection. With fewer than 3 points, the planner returns trend: insufficient_data.

Data Structures

ResourceUsage

Represents a resource usage data point in time.

Field	Type	Description
`Timestamp`	`time.Time`	Collection timestamp
`CPUPercent`	`float64`	CPU usage percentage (0-100)
`MemoryPercent`	`float64`	Memory usage percentage (0-100)
`CPUCores`	`float64`	Absolute usage in cores
`MemoryBytes`	`int64`	Absolute usage in bytes
`Namespace`	`string`	Source namespace
`Resource`	`string`	Resource name (deployment, node)

ResourceTrend

Linear regression result for a resource.

Field	Type	Description
`Resource`	`string`	Resource name
`Namespace`	`string`	Namespace
`CPUSlope`	`float64`	CPU growth rate (%/hour)
`MemorySlope`	`float64`	Memory growth rate (%/hour)
`CPUIntercept`	`float64`	Regression intercept for CPU
`MemoryIntercept`	`float64`	Regression intercept for memory
`DataPoints`	`int`	Number of points used in regression
`R2Score`	`float64`	Coefficient of determination (fit quality)

ForecastResult

Exhaustion projection with recommendations.

Field	Type	Description
`Resource`	`string`	Resource name
`Namespace`	`string`	Namespace
`CPUExhaustionDate`	`*time.Time`	Projected CPU exhaustion date (nil if stable)
`MemoryExhaustionDate`	`*time.Time`	Projected memory exhaustion date (nil if stable)
`CPUCurrentPercent`	`float64`	Current CPU usage
`MemoryCurrentPercent`	`float64`	Current memory usage
`CPUGrowthRate`	`float64`	CPU growth rate (%/hour)
`MemoryGrowthRate`	`float64`	Memory growth rate (%/hour)
`Urgency`	`string`	Classification: `urgent`, `plan`, `stable`
`Recommendations`	`[]string`	List of recommendations
`IsBottleneck`	`bool`	Whether the resource is a bottleneck in active incidents

Correlation with Incidents

The ResourceIsBottleneck method checks if a resource is related to active incidents:

For each active Issue (state != Resolved && state != Escalated):
  If issue.resource.name == forecast.Resource
  AND issue.resource.namespace == forecast.Namespace
  Then: forecast.IsBottleneck = true

When IsBottleneck = true, the capacity recommendation is automatically prioritized and includes a reference to the active incident.

Recommendation Generation

The Capacity Planner generates recommendations based on projection urgency:

Condition	Urgency	Recommendation
Exhaustion in less than 7 days	`urgent`	”URGENT: `{resource}` in `{namespace}` projected to exhaust `{type}` on `{date}`. Immediate action required: scale horizontally or increase limits.”
Exhaustion between 7 and 30 days	`plan`	”PLANNING: `{resource}` in `{namespace}` projected to exhaust `{type}` on `{date}`. Plan capacity increase in the coming weeks.”
Exhaustion in more than 30 days or negative/stable slope	`stable`	”Stable: `{resource}` in `{namespace}` shows no exhaustion trend within the 30-day horizon.”

How to Use

planner := capacity.NewCapacityPlanner(k8sClient, logger)

// Collect historical data and analyze trends
forecasts, err := planner.AnalyzeResourceTrends(ctx, namespace)
if err != nil {
    logger.Error("capacity analysis failed", zap.Error(err))
    return
}

for _, forecast := range forecasts {
    if forecast.Urgency == "urgent" {
        // Create proactive alert or incident
        logger.Warn("resource at risk of exhaustion",
            zap.String("resource", forecast.Resource),
            zap.Time("cpu_exhaustion", *forecast.CPUExhaustionDate),
        )
    }
}

The Capacity Planner collects data every reconciliation cycle (30 seconds) and stores history in a ConfigMap (chatcli-capacity-history). The regression is recalculated every 5 minutes.

Noise Reducer

The Noise Reducer implements four alert suppression strategies to reduce alert fatigue and improve the signal-to-noise ratio.

Strategy 1: Repetitive Suppression

Suppresses identical alerts when there is accumulation without state change.

Suppression condition:
  - 5 or more identical alerts in the last 1 hour
  - No state change (severity, resource, signal_type are the same)
  - Identity hash: SHA256(signal_type + resource_name + namespace)

Result:
  - Alert suppressed (no new Anomaly CR generated)
  - Suppression counter incremented
  - Log: "repetitive alert suppressed (N occurrences in 1h)"

If the alert severity changes (e.g., high to critical), suppression is immediately disabled and the alert is processed normally.

Strategy 2: Seasonal Patterns

Identifies and suppresses alerts that occur at predictable times (e.g., cleanup jobs, scheduled deploys). SeasonalPattern struct:

Field	Type	Description
`SignalType`	`string`	Signal type (e.g., `pod_restart`)
`Resource`	`string`	Resource name
`Namespace`	`string`	Namespace
`DayOfWeek`	`time.Weekday`	Day of the week (0=Sunday)
`HourOfDay`	`int`	Hour of the day (0-23)
`MinuteWindow`	`int`	Tolerance window in minutes
`Occurrences`	`int`	Number of confirmed occurrences
`Confidence`	`float64`	Pattern confidence (0-1)
`LastSeen`	`time.Time`	Last occurrence

Detection Algorithm:

For each alert received:
  1. Search for existing seasonal patterns for (signal_type, resource, namespace)
  2. For each pattern found:
     - Check if day_of_week == pattern.DayOfWeek
     - Check if |current_hour - pattern.HourOfDay| <= 30 minutes (tolerance window)
     - If match: increment Occurrences, update LastSeen
     - If Occurrences >= 3 AND Confidence >= 0.7: SUPPRESS the alert
  3. If no existing pattern matches:
     - Create new candidate SeasonalPattern (Occurrences=1, Confidence=0.3)

How patterns are learned: Pattern confidence grows with each confirmation:

Confidence = min(1.0, 0.3 + (Occurrences - 1) * 0.15)

Occurrences | Confidence | Suppress?
     1      |    0.30    |   No
     2      |    0.45    |   No
     3      |    0.60    |   No
     4      |    0.75    |   Yes (>= 0.7 and >= 3)
     5      |    0.90    |   Yes
     6+     |    1.00    |   Yes

Practical example:

ConfigMap update job runs every Monday at 03:00
Generates pod_restart alert in the jobs namespace
After 4 weeks: pattern identified (Monday, 03:00, confidence 0.75)
From the 5th week: alert automatically suppressed

Patterns are stored in the ConfigMap chatcli-seasonal-patterns.

Strategy 3: Flap Detection

Detects resources that oscillate between states (resolved -> detected -> resolved) repeatedly.

Flap condition:
  - 3 or more resolved -> detected cycles in the same 24-hour window
  - Same resource (resource_name + namespace)

Actions:
  1. Mark resource as "flapping"
  2. Suppress new alerts from the resource for 2 hours
  3. Generate consolidated alert: "Resource {name} is flapping -- {N} cycles in 24h"
  4. Recommend root cause investigation

Exiting flap:
  - If no new cycle in 2 hours: remove flap flag
  - New alerts resume normal processing

Strategy 4: Alert Fatigue Scoring

Calculates an alert fatigue score (0-100) to determine if alert volume is excessive.

fatigue_score = volume_score + resolve_rate_score + recency_score

Where:
  volume_score (0-40):
    - alerts_per_hour = total_alerts_last_6h / 6
    - volume_score = min(40, alerts_per_hour * 4)

  resolve_rate_score (0-30):
    - auto_resolve_rate = auto_resolved / total * 100
    - If auto_resolve_rate > 90%: resolve_rate_score = 30
    - If auto_resolve_rate > 70%: resolve_rate_score = 20
    - If auto_resolve_rate > 50%: resolve_rate_score = 10
    - Else: resolve_rate_score = 0

  recency_score (0-30):
    - If > 5 alerts in last 10 minutes: recency_score = 30
    - If > 3 alerts in last 10 minutes: recency_score = 20
    - If > 1 alert in last 10 minutes: recency_score = 10
    - Else: recency_score = 0

Classification:

Score	Classification	Action
0-25	`low`	No action. Healthy volume.
26-50	`moderate`	Warning log. Monitor trend.
51-75	`high`	Activate aggressive suppression. Consolidate similar alerts.
76-100	`critical`	Suppress everything except `critical` severity. Generate meta-alert for SRE.

Cost Tracker

The Cost Tracker tracks operational costs (LLM + downtime) and calculates AIOps automation ROI.

LLM Costs per Provider

The cost of each LLM call is calculated based on tokens consumed and configured prices per provider:

Provider	Input Cost (per 1M tokens)	Output Cost (per 1M tokens)	Reference Model
`claude`	$3.00	$15.00	Claude Sonnet
`gpt-4`	$10.00	$30.00	GPT-4 Turbo
`default`	$1.00	$3.00	Any other

Cost Configuration

Prices are configurable via ConfigMap chatcli-cost-config:

apiVersion: v1
kind: ConfigMap
metadata:
  name: chatcli-cost-config
  namespace: chatcli-system
data:
  costs.json: |
    {
      "providers": {
        "claude": {"input_per_million": 3.00, "output_per_million": 15.00},
        "gpt-4": {"input_per_million": 10.00, "output_per_million": 30.00},
        "gpt-4o": {"input_per_million": 2.50, "output_per_million": 10.00},
        "gemini": {"input_per_million": 0.50, "output_per_million": 1.50},
        "default": {"input_per_million": 1.00, "output_per_million": 3.00}
      },
      "downtime_cost_per_minute": 10.00,
      "engineer_hourly_rate": 75.00
    }

If the ConfigMap does not exist, default values are used. ConfigMap updates are reflected in real time (watch on ConfigMap).

IncidentCost

Total cost of an incident, decomposed into components:

Field	Type	Description
`IncidentName`	`string`	Incident name
`Namespace`	`string`	Namespace
`LLMCost`	`CostBreakdown`	Cost of LLM calls
`DowntimeCost`	`float64`	Downtime cost (minutes * cost/minute)
`TotalCost`	`float64`	LLMCost.Total + DowntimeCost
`Provider`	`string`	LLM provider used
`Model`	`string`	LLM model used
`Duration`	`time.Duration`	Total incident duration
`AutoRemediated`	`bool`	Whether it was resolved automatically

CostBreakdown:

Field	Type	Description
`InputTokens`	`int64`	Total input tokens
`OutputTokens`	`int64`	Total output tokens
`InputCost`	`float64`	Input token cost
`OutputCost`	`float64`	Output token cost
`Total`	`float64`	InputCost + OutputCost
`Calls`	`int`	Number of LLM calls

Calculation example:

Incident: CrashLoopBackOff on api-server
  - Provider: claude
  - LLM calls: 2 (AnalyzeIssue + 1 AgenticStep)
  - Input tokens: 8,500 | Output tokens: 2,200
  - InputCost:  8,500 / 1,000,000 * $3.00  = $0.0255
  - OutputCost: 2,200 / 1,000,000 * $15.00 = $0.0330
  - Total LLMCost: $0.0585

  - Downtime: 3 minutes
  - DowntimeCost: 3 * $10.00 = $30.00

  - TotalCost: $0.0585 + $30.00 = $30.06

CostSummary

Cost aggregation for a period:

Field	Type	Description
`Period`	`string`	Aggregation period (e.g., `30d`)
`TotalLLMCost`	`float64`	Sum of all LLM costs
`TotalDowntimeCost`	`float64`	Sum of all downtime costs
`TotalCost`	`float64`	TotalLLMCost + TotalDowntimeCost
`IncidentCount`	`int`	Total incidents in the period
`AutoRemediatedCount`	`int`	Incidents resolved automatically
`AvgCostPerIncident`	`float64`	TotalCost / IncidentCount
`TopCostlyIncidents`	`[]IncidentCost`	Top 5 most expensive incidents
`CostByProvider`	`map[string]float64`	Aggregated cost by LLM provider
`CostByNamespace`	`map[string]float64`	Aggregated cost by namespace
`ROI`	`ROICalculation`	Return on investment calculation

ROI Calculation

ROI is calculated by comparing automation cost with the estimated cost of manual resolution:

Variables:
  autoRemediated    = number of automatically resolved incidents
  avgManualHours    = 2h (estimated manual resolution time per incident)
  engineerRate      = $75/hour (configurable via ConfigMap)
  downtimePrevented = autoRemediated * avgDowntimeMinutes
  downtimeCostRate  = $10/minute (configurable via ConfigMap)

Calculation:
  engineerHoursSaved = autoRemediated * avgManualHours
  laborSavings       = engineerHoursSaved * engineerRate
  downtimeSavings    = downtimePrevented * downtimeCostRate
  totalSavings       = laborSavings + downtimeSavings
  totalLLMCost       = sum of all LLM costs in the period

  ROI% = ((totalSavings - totalLLMCost) / totalLLMCost) * 100

ROICalculation struct:

Field	Type	Description
`EngineerHoursSaved`	`float64`	Engineer hours saved
`LaborSavings`	`float64`	Labor savings ($)
`DowntimePrevented`	`float64`	Minutes of downtime prevented
`DowntimeSavings`	`float64`	Downtime savings ($)
`TotalSavings`	`float64`	Total savings ($)
`TotalLLMCost`	`float64`	Total LLM cost ($)
`ROIPercent`	`float64`	Return on investment (%)

Monthly ROI example:

Monthly data:
  - 312 automatically resolved incidents
  - Total LLM cost: $18.72

Calculation:
  engineerHoursSaved = 312 * 2h = 624 hours
  laborSavings       = 624 * $75 = $46,800
  downtimePrevented  = 312 * 4.5min = 1,404 minutes
  downtimeSavings    = 1,404 * $10 = $14,040
  totalSavings       = $46,800 + $14,040 = $60,840
  totalLLMCost       = $18.72

  ROI% = ($60,840 - $18.72) / $18.72 * 100 = 324,935%

ROI typically exceeds 100,000% because the cost of LLM calls ($0.03-0.10 per incident) is orders of magnitude lower than the cost of manual resolution (2h of engineer time + downtime).

Storage Architecture (ConfigMaps)

All Capacity Planner, Noise Reducer, and Cost Tracker data is persisted in ConfigMaps in the operator namespace:

ConfigMap	Data	Retention
`chatcli-capacity-history`	Historical CPU/memory usage per resource. Compact time series in JSON.	7 days (rolling window)
`chatcli-pattern-store`	Noise Reducer dedup hashes, suppression counters, flap flags.	24 hours (automatic pruning)
`chatcli-seasonal-patterns`	Learned seasonal patterns (SeasonalPattern structs in JSON).	Indefinite (patterns with Confidence < 0.3 and LastSeen > 30 days are removed)
`chatcli-cost-ledger`	Cost records per incident (IncidentCost in JSON). Used for aggregation.	90 days (rolling window)
`chatcli-cost-config`	Per-provider pricing configuration, downtime cost, engineer rate.	Indefinite (user-managed)

ConfigMaps have a 1MB limit in Kubernetes. For clusters with high incident volume (>1000/month), the Cost Tracker automatically compacts old records, keeping only daily aggregations for data older than 30 days.

Storage Format

apiVersion: v1
kind: ConfigMap
metadata:
  name: chatcli-cost-ledger
  namespace: chatcli-system
  labels:
    app.kubernetes.io/component: cost-tracker
    platform.chatcli.io/managed-by: operator
data:
  ledger.json: |
    {
      "version": 2,
      "lastCompaction": "2026-03-19T00:00:00Z",
      "entries": [
        {
          "incident": "issue-crashloop-api-server-production",
          "namespace": "production",
          "timestamp": "2026-03-19T14:13:00Z",
          "llmCost": 0.0585,
          "downtimeCost": 30.00,
          "totalCost": 30.06,
          "provider": "claude",
          "autoRemediated": true,
          "durationSeconds": 180
        }
      ],
      "dailyAggregates": [
        {
          "date": "2026-03-18",
          "totalLLMCost": 0.62,
          "totalDowntimeCost": 350.00,
          "incidentCount": 12,
          "autoRemediatedCount": 11
        }
      ]
    }

Integrations

REST API

Endpoints /api/v1/analytics/remediation-stats and /api/v1/analytics/summary expose cost and capacity data.

Web Dashboard

The Overview view displays ROI metrics and capacity projections in real time.

Grafana

The remediation-stats.json dashboard includes cost and ROI panels.

AIOps Platform

Complete AIOps pipeline architecture and how these subsystems integrate.

Home

Getting Started

Core Concepts

Features

Support

Capacity Planning and Cost Attribution

Capacity Planner

Linear Regression Algorithm

Data Structures

Correlation with Incidents

Recommendation Generation

How to Use

Noise Reducer

Strategy 1: Repetitive Suppression

Strategy 2: Seasonal Patterns

Strategy 3: Flap Detection

Strategy 4: Alert Fatigue Scoring

Cost Tracker

LLM Costs per Provider

Cost Configuration

IncidentCost

CostSummary

ROI Calculation

Storage Architecture (ConfigMaps)

Storage Format

Integrations

REST API

Web Dashboard

Grafana

AIOps Platform

Home

Getting Started

Core Concepts

Features

Support

​Capacity Planner

​Linear Regression Algorithm

​Data Structures

​Correlation with Incidents

​Recommendation Generation

​How to Use

​Noise Reducer

​Strategy 1: Repetitive Suppression

​Strategy 2: Seasonal Patterns

​Strategy 3: Flap Detection

​Strategy 4: Alert Fatigue Scoring

​Cost Tracker

​LLM Costs per Provider

​Cost Configuration

​IncidentCost

​CostSummary

​ROI Calculation

​Storage Architecture (ConfigMaps)

​Storage Format

​Integrations

REST API

Web Dashboard

Grafana

AIOps Platform

Capacity Planner

Linear Regression Algorithm

Data Structures

Correlation with Incidents

Recommendation Generation

How to Use

Noise Reducer

Strategy 1: Repetitive Suppression

Strategy 2: Seasonal Patterns

Strategy 3: Flap Detection

Strategy 4: Alert Fatigue Scoring

Cost Tracker

LLM Costs per Provider

Cost Configuration

IncidentCost

CostSummary

ROI Calculation

Storage Architecture (ConfigMaps)

Storage Format

Integrations